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How Prediction Markets Work: Prices, Positions and Resolution

Prediction-market guide

Editorial review: June 1, 2026. See our editorial policy.

Prediction markets let users take positions on future outcomes. The exact mechanics depend on the product: one platform may use peer-to-peer shares, another may list regulated event contracts, and a sportsbook feature may use fixed odds instead.

Keep the categories straight: Prediction markets are not online casinos, traditional sportsbooks, or conventional financial trading products. Some brands overlap, but the underlying product model still matters.

The basic idea

1. Choose a question

A market is built around an event outcome, such as an election result, a sports event, a crypto price threshold, or an economic release.

2. Take a position

Depending on the platform, you may buy outcome shares, trade event contracts, or place a fixed-odds sportsbook bet.

3. Follow the resolution rules

The market settles using its published rules and source. Winning positions pay out according to the product terms; losing ones may settle at zero.

Prices can represent probability

On share-based markets, a price between $0.00 and $1.00 often acts as an implied probability. A Yes share trading at $0.65 suggests the market is pricing roughly a 65% chance of that outcome. It is a market price, not a guarantee.

Liquidity affects early exits

Being right eventually is not the only question. If you want to exit before resolution, the available buyers, sellers, and spread can affect the price you receive. Fixed-odds sportsbook products work differently because they do not depend on peer-to-peer liquidity in the same way.

Why product labels can mislead

Polymarket’s international platform uses peer-to-peer outcome shares. BETBY’s official announcement describes a different model: fixed-odds non-sports markets inside a sportsbook interface, without peer-to-peer liquidity pools. Start with the mechanics, then compare the brand.

Resolution rules matter more than the headline

Read the full market rules before taking a position. Check the resolution source, deadline, edge cases, and dispute process. Polymarket’s official documentation, for example, says its markets use pre-defined rules and the UMA Optimistic Oracle process.

Capybara rule: If the headline is exciting but the resolution wording is muddy, pause and read twice.

What to compare before using a platform

Eligibility

Check country, province, territory, or state rules. Do not treat website access as proof that trading is allowed.

Fees and funding

Check trading fees, deposit and withdrawal routes, network costs, and any third-party charges.

Custody

Understand who holds funds or collateral and what wallet, account, or transfer risks apply.

Responsible-use tools

Look for limits, timeouts, self-exclusion, and current support resources where available.

Frequently asked questions

Can I lose money?

Yes. A position can lose value or settle at zero, and fees or limited liquidity can affect the result.

Can I use a VPN if a platform blocks my location?

No. Do not use a VPN or similar tool to bypass a location restriction.

Is this investment advice?

No. This guide is informational. Confirm the platform terms and rules directly before acting.