The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has fined Gabriel Perez, a former teleprompter for President Donald Trump, $65,000 for wagering on what Trump would say during his speeches. The trades were placed on the prediction market platform Kalshi. Perez must also forfeit roughly $100,000 in profits from the trades and faces a three-year trading ban.
The CFTC’s action targets Perez’s use of non-public information about the content of Trump’s speeches to bet on related markets. According to the regulator, Perez traded on Kalshi’s speech markets, which allow users to wager on specific phrases or topics that might appear in a speech. The fine and forfeiture are intended to penalize the misconduct and deter similar behavior.
Prediction markets like Kalshi have grown in popularity, allowing users to bet on outcomes ranging from political events to economic data. Regulators have been scrutinizing these platforms to ensure they comply with trading rules, particularly regarding insider information. The CFTC’s enforcement action highlights that individuals with access to non-public information cannot use it to gain an unfair advantage in these markets.
For everyday users of Kalshi, this case is a reminder that the platform is subject to federal oversight. While the fine against Perez does not directly affect your ability to deposit, withdraw, or trade on Kalshi, it underscores that the CFTC is actively policing these markets. If you hold positions in speech-related markets, the action may lead to increased scrutiny of such trades, but there is no immediate impact on your account or funds.
Going forward, expect regulators to continue monitoring prediction markets for insider trading and other violations. Users should be aware that trading based on non-public information can lead to severe penalties, including fines and bans.