Brazil's Illegal Betting Market: The Estimates

Updated Sep 27, 20267 min read

IBJR/LCA and H2 Gambling Capital estimates of Brazil's illegal betting market, Central Bank Pix data on the whole market, and what MP 1.394/2026 changes.

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Studies commissioned by the Instituto Brasileiro do Jogo Responsável (IBJR) from LCA Consultoria Econômica, with field research by Instituto Locomotiva, estimate that a significant share of Brazil's fixed-odds betting market operated without valid authorisation. This page summarises only what those estimates and the official sources listed below state.

Informational content, not legal or financial advice. The illegal-market estimates below are third-party figures, not official measurements, and should not be added together or treated as the same measurement.

What counted as the illegal market, before the MP

In LCA's studies before MP 1.394/2026, the illegal market was made up of operators offering bets without valid authorisation to operate. That included companies that never applied for authorisation, had their application denied, or state-level operators offering bets outside the territorial limits of their authorisation.

With the MP, authorisations granted under Law 14.790/2023 are extinguished at the end of thirty days from publication (Art. 4).

The estimates used on this page were commissioned by IBJR and produced by LCA Consultoria Econômica. The illegal-market share figures come from Instituto Locomotiva's field research on bettor behaviour.

The IBJR/LCA range: a projection, not an official figure

In June 2025, LCA estimated the illegal market represented between 41% and 51% of the betting sector. The study itself summarises this result as "41% to 51%: illegal-market share of the betting sector".

In August 2026, a new round of the study lowered that range to between 38% and 44% of the betting sector. The new round summarises the result as "38% to 44%: illegal-market share of the betting sector". In each round's base scenario, the estimated share fell from 46% in 2025 to 41% in 2026.

Reporting on the 2026 study states that the 38%-44% share of the betting market concentrated in illegal platforms is an estimate by LCA Consultoria Econômica, produced on request from IBJR. The same reporting records that, in 2025, the calculated range was 41% to 51% of the market.

The 2026 range rests on an Instituto Locomotiva survey of 2,291 bettors. About half reported at least two signs of using irregular platforms, such as the absence of facial recognition or the ability to deposit by credit card. Because the "larger part" and "smaller part" answers about the amount wagered do not correspond to exact percentages, LCA built different scenarios, assigning different weights to those categories.

The result itself is described as a projection based on bettors' answers, not a direct measurement of illegal platforms' revenue or accounts.

What that would represent in reais

In the June 2025 study, LCA started from the tax collected on legal operators' revenue (DARF 5862) between February and April 2025. LCA annualised the result by assuming the amount observed over those 3 months would repeat in the remaining quarters of the year. On that basis, it estimated the illegal market at between R$ 26 billion and R$ 40 billion a year and the legal market at R$ 38 billion a year.

According to CNN Brasil's report of 24 September 2026, the Receita Federal collected R$ 8.7 billion from gambling and betting activities between January and July 2026, and LCA annualised the result by assuming the amount observed between January and July would repeat proportionally over the remaining five months. On that basis, LCA calculates that the illegal market would have an annualised revenue of between R$ 32.9 billion and R$ 43.3 billion. The legal market, in turn, would reach about R$ 54.3 billion a year; combined, the two segments would represent a market of between R$ 87 billion and R$ 98 billion in annualised revenue.

These figures refer to the betting market's estimated revenue, not the total amount placed in bets by bettors.

Estimated tax impact

According to the same reporting, applying the effective 27.6% tax burden LCA used to the estimated size of the illegal market, LCA calculates a potential uncollected tax revenue of between R$ 9.1 billion and R$ 12 billion a year. That figure does not include the monitoring fee charged to betting operators, or income tax on bettors' winnings.

A separate, lower estimate: H2 Gambling Capital

According to calculations by H2 Gambling Capital, based on Central Bank information on remittances abroad, cryptocurrency movement and internet traffic, the clandestine market moved R$ 16.3 billion in 2025. The betting industry says the illegal market is larger than the H2 Gambling Capital estimate. The two estimates use different methods and should not be added together or reconciled.

What the Central Bank's Pix data shows — for the whole market

A Central Bank technical study (Estudo Especial nº 119/2024, reproducing Nota Técnica 513/2024-BCB/SECRE, from September 2024) estimated Pix transfers to gambling and betting companies — a picture of the betting market as a whole, not only its illegal share. The Central Bank itself notes that the results are estimates, subject to the risks of the assumptions used, and are preliminary.

Monthly transfer figures, from January to August 2024, ranged between R$ 18 billion and R$ 21 billion. Monthly transfer figures ranged between R$ 18 billion and R$ 21 billion. According to the study itself, those figures represent gross transfers, that is, an estimate of how much was wagered in the month, not operators' revenue. The Central Bank also estimated that about 24 million individuals took part in gambling and betting, making at least one Pix transfer to these companies during the period analysed.

What MP 1.394/2026 changes

The MP prohibits, across the whole national territory, the operation, offer, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting lotteries, in physical or virtual form, including when offered by an agent based abroad to a person located in Brazil (Art. 1).

Ten days after the MP is published, betting operators must make access to their fixed-odds betting sites and apps unavailable, including in app stores, under penalty of blocking (Art. 7). From the publication date, new funds are barred from entering the transactional accounts (Art. 7, §1).

Advertising of fixed-odds betting is also prohibited, in any physical or digital medium (Art. 16). That ban covers any content that offers, promotes, publicises or facilitates access to that kind of bet to the Brazilian public, regardless of format or how it is paid for (Art. 16, §1). That is why this page names no betting sites, brands or domains.

Risks the sources state

Under the MP itself, publicising or facilitating access to fixed-odds betting constitutes abusive advertising under the Consumer Protection Code, subject to administrative sanctions and corrective advertising, without prejudice to civil and criminal liability (Art. 18).

The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Justice and Public Security can also request the blocking or redirection of sites offering that kind of bet (Art. 23).

According to the Minister of Justice and Public Security, 1,367 sites and profiles with irregular activity were taken down in a joint action on the eve of the prohibition announcement alone. In a report dated 6 July 2026, Folha de S.Paulo recorded that, according to Finance Minister Dario Durigan, about 300 operators are behind almost 50,000 illegal sites already taken down, which used 37 financial institutions to make payments.

If you still have a balance in a betting account

Bettors have until 11:59 pm on 5 October 2026 to access sites and apps and withdraw their remaining balance, before sites are blocked. See the step-by-step in our balance withdrawal guide.

Sources

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Withdraw your betting balance (MP 1.394)

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